NexaFlow
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Draft 3 · IC Mon 2 Nov47 cited

NexaFlow · Series B

Recommendation
Invest, subject to conditions
Pre-money
Our range $117–149M·cap $133M12
Verified ARR
$14.6M3
Red flags
5

Closing conditions

  1. 1Maya signs off the ARR bridge to $14.6M3
  2. 2Interim head of engineering named before close18
  3. 3Pre-money: Our range $117–149M·cap $133M12

Diligence findings

Figure 1 · ARR bridge, deck to verified ($M)Sources 3, 4, 7
You and the agent disagree
SGYou
Key person risk: Medium
DDDeal Desk
High: 4 engineers followed Jordan18

Valuation range

Figure 2 · Pre-money by method ($M)Source 12
Firm priors · Pre-money / verified ARR5 past deals · median 8.9×
cap 9.1×ask 12.3×
6×8×10×12×14×
Fernway7.8×
On plan
Mosaic8.2×
Flat 6 mo
Tidepool8.9×
2.4× markup
Arcline9.6×
ARR 1.6×
Corvid11.5×
Needs bridge
Our cap is 9.1×, inside the firm’s usual band. The $180M ask is 12.3×, above every deal we’ve done; the last one above 11× needed a bridge.Firm brain · outcomes
Implied by priors: $120–140M on $14.6M verified ARR

Expected IC questions

Why is ARR $3.6M below the deck?
Who runs engineering after Jordan?
What would change our recommendation?